The spreading of infectious diseases in modern socio-technical systems Comment on "Pattern transitions in spatial epidemics: Mechanisms and emergent properties" by Gui-Quan Sun et al.

نویسنده

  • Nicola Perra
چکیده

We are all part of di↵erent, often interconnected, socio-technical systems [1]. These provide a set of unprecedented capabilities. The global air transportation network allows to travel between almost any two points on earth within one day. The network of roads and rails consent to reach di↵erent neighbourhoods, regions or even countries in matter of hours. A variety of platforms running over the Internet allows to communicate instantaneously across time zones with friends, family and strangers alike. The way we travel, commute, and communicate is drastically di↵erent and more e cient respect to any time in our history [2]. As Sun et al correctly note in their review [3], the recent outbreaks of SARS (2002), H1N1 (2009), H7N9 (2013), Ebola (2014), and MERS-CoV (2012 and 2015) show how such unprecedented global and local connectivity a↵ects diseases’ dynamics. The comparison between the spreading of the black death in the 14 century and H1N1 in 2009 is particular revealing. The first took over Europe slowly moving from the south as a wave in a medium. The disease reached north Europe in about 2 years. The second instead, spread in 214 countries in matter of few months. Notably its spreading patterns have been seemly erratic and di↵erent respect to a wave propagation in space [4, 5]. In particular, the di↵usion from one city to another was not simply driven by proximity but by their e↵ective connectivity in the current transportation system [6]. Furthermore, the two diseases induced the proliferation of panic, fear, and behavioural changes. However, in the

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عنوان ژورنال:
  • Physics of life reviews

دوره 19  شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2016